The recent conclusion of the agreement with the IMF, after a long negotiation, generates a new economic scenario and, therefore, generates new expectations for the dollar price in 2022. Achieving exchange rate peace is one of the objectives of the program agreed with the Fund, but the inflationary flashes of recent months, fueled in part by the war in Europe, bring a new layer of uncertainty about what will happen to the exchange rate in the coming months.
In a context of doubts about the economy, so far this year the US currency he was constantly under the concerned gaze of the Argentines. On Thursday, December 30 – last business day of last year – the blue dollar he set an all-time high of $210. Then on January 27, he set a feverish high of $223. This week, despite reports of strong inflation, the unofficial price was this Friday, April 8, at $196.50.
Meanwhile, the official dollar It is currently advancing in an accelerated micro devaluation compared to last year.
In any case, and when there are still doubts as to whether the agreement with the IMF can be carried out to the letter, Argentines are again wondering what will happen to the us currency price in the coming months.
The price of the dollar, a crucial economic indicator for many Argentines.
Dollar 2022: the new market forecast
An interesting and useful perspective on what is to come can be found in the REM Central Bank Surveythat concentrates new forecasts on what What will happen to the price of the American ticket? At the end of the year. The monetary authority published this Friday the results of the monthly survey carried out among consultants and analysts of the City. There, the experts share their forecasts for the price in dollarsinflation and GDP growth.
The financial market agents grouped in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) estimated that the wholesale official exchange rate will arrive at $154 per dollar at the end of December from 2022. This is a slight drop of $0.37 from the previous REM forecast. This indicates that the market received the conclusion of the new pact with the Monetary Fund with moderate optimism.
In parallel, The survey shows that analysts foresee a price of the dollar of $222 for december 2023.
The wholesale dollar closed this Friday at $112.16, so analysts believe that it has $41.84 left to rise until the end of the year.
The following graph shows the evolution of the average price of the dollar estimated for the end of the year by more than 40 banks and market consultants:
Evolution of REM forecasts. Projected wholesale price of the dollar for the end of December 2022.
Prices: what will happen to inflation
EMN participants also anticipated that the March 2021 inflation went up to 5.5%.
In addition, market analysts projected that retail inflation will accumulate during 2022 a 59.2%. In addition, the inflation forecast for the year 2023 Is 47.5%.
How much will the economy grow, according to the REM
The analysts of the REM forecast for 2022 a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) around 3.2%implying an improvement of 0.2 percentage points from last month’s survey.
The Market Expectations Survey (REM) consists of a systematic monitoring of the main short- and medium-term macroeconomic projections that are usually carried out by specialized local and foreign analysts, on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy prepared by the Central Bank.
City experts forecast economic growth of 3.2% this year.
Expectations about retail prices, the interest rate, the nominal exchange rate, economic activity and the primary result of the non-financial national public sector are surveyed.
The latest report disseminates the results of the survey conducted between March 29 and 31.
The forecasts of 41 participants were consideredwhich include 27 consulting firms and local and international research centers, and 14 financial entities in Argentina.
Dollar in 2022: this is how FocusEconomics anticipates it
In addition to the BCRA’s REM, another major survey that is highly appreciated by the market is the one published monthly by FocusEconomics, the latest edition of which was released in mid-January.
In this case, some 40 national and foreign economists prepare their monthly forecasts on what will happen in the coming months.
of economists surveyed in the March report, the wholesale exchange rate it will be at the end of the year the $158, about 90 cents below last February’s estimates.
The official devaluation would be at a level close to 54% throughout 2022, according to national and foreign economists.
“The Central Bank adheres to a managed float of the exchange rate”, considers the world report.
In conclusion, the forecasts made allow us to estimate that the devaluation what is expected for this whole year would be 53.78%. A level that is just above the projected inflation for this whole year, which is 53.3%.
It should be remembered that the project budget 2022 sent by the Government to Congress, fixes an official exchange rate for the closing of the year of $131.10 and an inflation of 33%.
Therefore, the estimates of national and foreign economists are around 20% above the official goals for the official dollar.
Even the consensus of the economists consulted by FocusEconomics ($158) is above the price that is negotiated for the wholesale dollar in the futures and options market. Matba-Rofexthat by December 2022, it is $149.91.
The consensus of economists for the price of the dollar at the end of 2022, according to the March FocusEconomics, is $158.
Economist projections for the dollar
When observing the specific projections for the official wholesale dollar of the different bank and consulting economists, it is evident that the great dispersion of the estimates continues, since the minimum forecast price is $140 and the maximum reaches $181.
The highest estimate for the wholesale exchange rate for the end of 2022 is the one that maintains, for the third consecutive month, Fitch Ratingsin it $181.05. FOLLOW ME Itau Unibanco ($175) and the local consultant ecovistaswith a forecast of 174.67 pesos.
According to the opinion of John Louis Bourchief economist of FIEL, whose estimates are $148.30 a dollar at the end of the year, the «The government walked into a trap, with conflicting goals. It wants to avoid appreciation, but if it accelerates the devaluation more than 2.7% per month, which would be more than double that of the second half of 2021, it will accelerate inflation and other price imbalances”, he tells iProfesional.
Meanwhile, the economist Sebastian Menescaldiassociate director of Eco Go, considers an official dollar of $163.53 for December, since he estimates that the exchange rate will run “slightly below inflation, but the agreement with the IMF indicates that the the real exchange rate can no longer be appreciated than the value of December last year. So with these levels of inflation, you’re going to have to start running faster. So it will have a higher level.”
For Paul Repettodirector of the GRA, Gabriel Rubinstein, with an official projection of the dollar of $151.50, tells iProfesional: «We are waiting for the dollar runs a little below the rate of inflationmaintain the real exchange rate with few changes compared to the end of 2021. In this sense, we see inflation for the coming months as very complicated.”
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